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Romanian economy at an inflection point

Published at: 20-07-2018

Posted on: July 20th, 2018 by RaduC No Comments

How can we decipher what is currently going on with the economy? Assuming that we are regular people with average knowledge in the area. What might seemingly conflicting statements, such as “the inflation that we are able to keep in check, has dropped, this is really great” and ”the uncertainties and risks arising from medium-term […]

Romania – cursed or blessed with natural gas resources?

Published at: 13-07-2018

Posted on: July 13th, 2018 by RaduC No Comments

Certainly, this is a question that on the face of it could sound absurd to many. How can a country with significant natural gas resources fear that they could end up creating trouble? These concerns are not new and there is a whole literature on the phenomenon given various metaphoric names. The Economist was the […]

Romania’s ambition: never become a regional leader

Published at: 06-07-2018

Posted on: July 6th, 2018 by RaduC No Comments

A few months ago I participated in a conference organized by the Romanian Central Bank. On that occasion, against the backdrop of Mr. Juncker`s vaguely optimistic statements on the new European architecture, people talked endlessly about including Romania in Europe`s hard core. That is alongside France, Germany, the Netherlands and other like countries. My speech, which […]

Moldova`s annexation of Romania

Published at: 29-06-2018

Posted on: June 29th, 2018 by RaduC No Comments

This was not the plan. This is not how it was supposed to happen! Romania, from its big brother position, was intent on acting as the main champion and “coach” to the Republic of Moldova so that the latter could swiftly and smoothly join the select club of the EU Member States. Moreover, some pundits […]

Patriot missiles on clay launchers

Published at: 22-06-2018

Posted on: June 22nd, 2018 by RaduC No Comments

Romania is in a frantic race to modernize its military arsenal. It is a race which involves significant costs for the lowest European budget relative to its economy. These costs make Romania`s defense budget the second largest as a percentage of budgetary revenues among NATO countries, behind the US. And yet, these expensive steps will […]

A nonsense: We love creditors but rant at strategic investors

Published at: 15-06-2018

Posted on: June 15th, 2018 by RaduC No Comments

The latest Romania`s achievement in terms of raising foreign debt was a sovereign bond issue worth $1.2 Bn bearing an annual 5.2% interest rate and a maturity of 30 years. As an aside, that was an opportunity that Romania will not easily encounter any time soon. For several reasons. As I showed in a previous […]

On lack of rigor and hypocrisy (in the aula of ASE)

Published at: 08-06-2018

Posted on: June 8th, 2018 by RaduC No Comments

“Even though we are celebrating 10 years since the first contributions were paid into the private mandatory pension funds (Pillar II), I do not think that festive presentations are in order. Having this event in the amphitheater of the School of Economics (ASE) compels us, I believe, to academic rigor. That is why this is […]

A crisis is not off the table – three scenarios

Published at: 01-06-2018

Posted on: June 1st, 2018 by RaduC No Comments

These comments are designed for those who insist on regularly reassuring us that there are no reasons for concern, that excessively loading the budget with irreversible expenses, such as pensions and wages is sustainable because there is no crisis looming. Actually, there have been warning signs which come from several areas. For the purpose of […]

A pseudo solution that won`t get us out of the trap

Published at: 25-05-2018

Posted on: May 25th, 2018 by RaduC No Comments

The other days I discussed with a well-known journalist about the reasons of Viktor Orban`s success in Hungary. My interlocutor was talking admiringly about him because he had understood that Hungary could no longer be underpinned by a foreign direct investment model and that Romania should follow suit. He argued that foreign capital flows leaving […]

Lethal delusions

Published at: 18-05-2018

Posted on: May 18th, 2018 by RaduC No Comments

In the past 25 years, the Romanian government has provided numerous poor management examples of the assets it’s responsible for: state-owned enterprises incapable of reinventing themselves after 1989 and ending up shut down, companies with good potential or a very good financial position which got ripped off under the eyes of shareholders only to be […]

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